Polymarket Election Forecast

Polymarket, a prediction market site that allows users to bet on the outcome, was one of the first to call Donald Trump's victory in the US election. Polymarket is not a poll, it reflects the opinions of those who have put money into it, and the predictions are not necessarily true.

Polymarket introduction

Will Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the 2024 election?

Polymarket lets you get your news from the future. See who's leading on the world’s largest prediction market, where odds change in real time, reflecting breaking news, new polls, and major events. Prediction markets provide unbiased, accurate, and up-to-date insights. Don’t trust the polls—trust the markets.

How dose polymarket work?

Polymarket is a prediction market website that allows users to bet on the outcome. According to Dune Analytics, a blockchain data analysis platform, the number of monthly active transaction users on the site surged from 13,000 in May this year to 220,000 in October.

On this site, the topics that users care about are framed as "yes or no" questions. For example, "Will Trump win the US presidential election in 2024?" "Will Musk have fewer than 250 tweets between November 1 and 8?" Or "Will 'Inside Out 2' be the highest-grossing film of 2024?" . When a user bets, there needs to be another user on the opposing side - someone for, someone against, and the deal is done.

The price of the "bet" is reflected in the odds, which is the amount of money a bettor needs to bet in order to win $1. For example, the odds are 65%, which means that the user needs to bet $0.65. It also represents the probability of the outcome, because only if a user believes that the probability of the outcome is higher than 65% will he be willing to pay $0.65.

The principle of making money is simple: If the event eventually happens, the user will receive a $1 return for every $0.65 invested; If it doesn't happen, it's money down the drain. Of course, users can also sell their "share" before the final result comes out, and profit from its price fluctuations.